As part of the MORE4WATER initiative, researchers have refined an approach for reconstructing lake level changes based on ERA5-Land (ERA5L) reanalysis data and lake water level observations. With this aim additional case studies were added. Specifically, the following closed lakes are consdiered: Bracciano, Vico, Trasimeno Lakes in Italy, Crater Lake in Oregon (USA), (d) Elementaita and Solai Lakes in Kenya.
The AQUILA approach — a user-oriented model designed to simulate and forecast lake and groundwater levels — was tested integrating precipitation, runoff, and evaporation data (via the FLake model). The results demonstrated a strong correlation (up to 90%) between observed and reconstructed lake level trends, even with limited observational data. Despite occasional discrepancies due to precipitation biases in the reanalysis dataset, the AQUILA approach has proven to be a robust, low-cost tool to support drought resilience and improve water resource planning in poorly monitored basins.
This methodology contributes directly to climate change impact assessments and will support the development of forecasting systems in WP3 of MORE4WATER.
